American Economic Re watch over 101 (August 2011): 16761706 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?inside=10.1257/aer.101.5.1676 From pecuniary Crash to Debt Crisisâ By Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff* Newly developed diachronic date series on cosmos debt, along with entropy on out-of-door debts, allow a deeper compendium of the debt cycles underlying sequential debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses atÂ bothÂ worlds gentleman aggregate levels and on an individual country basis.Â First, immaterial debt surges ar an causality to banking crises.Â Second, banking crises (domestic and those in fiscal centers) often precede or accompany free debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of externalÂ sovereign default, as governments shake off hidden domestic debts that exceed the offend documented levels of external debt. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, H63, N20) The economics profession has an unfor tunate inclination of an orbit to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets.1 It is particularly distressing that so umpteen cross-country analyses of financial crises rely on debt and default data outlet back altogether to 1980, when the underlying cycle can be a half(prenominal) century or more long, not fair 30 years.
2 This motif attempts to address this deficiency by employing a comprehensive new long-run historical database for poring over debt and banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes.3 To construct our dataset, we build on the work of many scholars as well as a considerable totality of new mate! rial from diverse primary quill and unoriginal sources. The data covers 70 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, northern America, and Oceania.4 The outrank of variables encompasses external and domestic debt, trade, GNP, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices.5 Our digest spans over two centuries, going back to the date of license or well into the colonial period for some countries. *...If you disposition to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com
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